By: Steven Rawnsley

Fantasy drafts have started.  However, most drafts have not happened yet.  Here is my advice on who to avoid.  Part two will be guys I am targeting and that will come out later this week.

please note:  These rankings are based upon yahoo’s preseason rankings.

1.  Paul Millsap

Sooner or later Derrick Favors will be starting.  He was the main part of Utah’s trade with Brooklyn involving Deron Williams.  Playing time does not fluctuate in other sports like they do in basketball, and that could be the problem for Millsap.  Now, if he comes off the bench, I still think he gets very close to thirty minutes a night.   He will get time at SF like he did at the end of last year, and there will not really be any backup SF’s he cannot match up with.

He is also better in rotisserie leagues then head to head, and most people do head to head.   He gets great all around numbers, but most people like to specialize in a five or six of the standard nine categories.  If you like to specialize, like me, he is great in steals, but nothing else jumps out.  In the second round I am still looking for guys who are awesome in two or three categories. Great all around numbers, but the potential downside outweighs the upside.

2.  Dwyane Wade

Okay, I know I will get blasted for this one.  I have a few concerns though about his health.  His preseason rank is sixth.  However, he finished twenty-sixth last year.  I know he battled injuries all of last year.  However, he is coming off of knee surgery at thirty years old.  As players get older, those surgeries usually become harder to come back from.

That age is worrisome for another reason.  His saying has always been “fall down seven times, get up eight.”  All of those falls, and hits in the lane are not good for him.  The one stat that concerns me, (and we are talking about fantasy) is his free throw attempts.  His free throw attempts have declined the past four seasons, and went down dramatically to 6.1 attempts per game last year.  This could be an indication that his style of play is taking its toll.  To me, taking him in the middle of the first round, has very little upside, while having a ton of downside.

 3.  Kobe Bryant

He is one of the all-time greats.  No argument here.  However, his career is coming to an end here soon.  However, somebody in just about every league will take him in the first round or early second round.  Last season he was ranked 25^th in total rank and 23^rd in average rank.  He will keep sliding ever so slightly.  Right now, his average pick is 11.5.  Now, if he falls outside of the top 25 picks, okay, I start putting him on my draft watch.  However, it is hard to find a league where there is not a bandwagon Lakers fan drooling to pick him very early in the draft.

 4.  Deron Williams

He was bothered by a bad right wrist most of last year.  That is a major reason why he only shot 40%.  However, this was not the first time he has been bothered by a bad shooting wrist.  This injury has cost him games in the previous four seasons.  My concern for him is that this is more of a chronicle injury, which will last his whole career.

He was ranked 39^th last year.  I think he will play better, especially with a much improved supporting cast.  That supporting cast also means less fga’s which means that if he does struggle shooting again, the percentage does not hurt you as much.  Much like Wade, I feel like taking him gives you little upside, but has a ton of potential downside.

 5.  Danilo Gallinari

What is his best stat?  When you think of him, you think of shooting.  However, his shooting is probably overrated in terms of fantasy.  He was not in the top fifty average three pointers per game last year.  Okay, he can score right?  He averaged just under fifteen points per game last year.  We have eliminated what he is known for.

His best stat is his free throw shooting, where he shoots 87% on just under five free throw attempts.  So, here he can make a big difference.  His average rank last year was 52^nd. He is averaging to go 60^th in the draft.  However, you throw in the fact he has missed over twenty game in three of his four seasons, and you are paying an awful lot for a guy who gets you little in return.

The post Fantasy Basketball Busts appeared first on The World Champion Crank Up The HEAT.

By: Steve Rawnsley

With the rosters mostly set, now is a good time to start evaluating where each team can finish. Now, it is time to look at the Eastern Conference. Really, outside of Boston and Miami, the East is much weaker than the West. It will be interesting to see how the East shapes up. Here are my top four teams in the East.

Miami HEAT

The NBA champions probably got better in the offseason. The signing of Ray Allen was great for them. However, he does come with some concerns. The biggest concern is the adjustment coming off the bench. The reason why guys like Jason Terry are such a hot commodity in the league is because it usually takes a player a while to get into the rhythm of the game after sitting for a long period of time. As a starter, you just come off warm-ups. This is not really a skill you can develop. We will see if he has it. He also battled some injuries last year, and he is not getting any younger.

However, he will not be asked to do nearly as much. He will be mainly asked to stand in the corner and spread the floor. He should still demand a guy stay glued to him. That opens up the lane for the freight trains, LeBron James, along with D-Wade. The signing of Rahsard Lewis, along with not signing a center means the Heat will not use the traditional positions. At times, you could see LeBron as the “center.” He is the perfect player to build this strategy around, because he is the ultimate all-around player.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics made a ton of noise in the offseason to retool their team. They still have a big 3 of Rondo, Pierce, and Garnett. (Let’s be honest, Rondo has been better than Allen for at least a year now.) Their Achilles Heal has been fixed, with the players they brought in to come off the bench. Jason Terry has been the ultimate sixth man of this generation.

With Avery Bradley as the starting SG, you can make the argument that Boston got better with losing Allen, but getting Terry. Courtney Lee was also signed. Let’s not forget he was a starter for the Magic his rookie year. He is a very solid piece off the bench. Jared Sullinger had red flags going into the draft about his long-term health, and he fell.

All Boston cares about right now is building the best team for the next few years, and Sullinger could be a good PF off the bench. Getting a healthy Avery Bradley back will be a nice addition. These pieces should help negate the negative effects of aging for Pierce and Garnett.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers made big strides last year by getting to the second round, and giving the Heat a run for their money. The Pacers will look to build upon that foundation set.

The Pacers kept their two important free agents, Roy Hibbert, and George Hill. Now, we can debate whether or not they overpaid for them, but that is a different subject for a different time. The core of this team is young and improving, outside of David West, who is 31 years old. He is getting close to falling, but not quite there yet. They also got DJ Augustine and Ian Manhimi. Manhimi will be an upgrade over Lou Amundson, and DJ Augustine is probably a better fit then Darren Collison was. Collison is a scoring PG, where Augustine is a passing PG. The Pacers already have a scoring PG, in George Hill.

The one player to keep an eye on is Paul George. He is probably played out of position at SG, but he still had a very good sophomore season. He might be the most important piece for the Pacers going forward. Not many wings have the talent he has.

Brooklyn Nets

Before the Dwight Howard trade, there might not have been a team that had made more noise than the Nets did. The Nets needed to make some moves to keep Deron Williams happy. Joe Johnson was thought to be untradeable due to his $69 million remaining for the next three years. However, the billionaire owner, Mikhail Prokhorov, showed he is willing to spend whatever he needs to in order to turn this franchise around.

The Joe Johnson acquisition convinced Deron Williams to resign. They also kept Gerald Wallace, and Kris Humphries. Both of whom made news by getting dramatically overpaid in most people’s opinions. However, Prokhorov has said he is not worried about the luxury tax, so the GM Billy King basically has an limitless checkbook.

The Nets look good on paper 1-6, but after that they are in trouble. Not many teams will have a better starting lineup than Dwill, Johnson, Wallace, Humphries, and Lopez. Marshon Brooks turned in a solid rookie year, and is slated to be the 6th man. The team will most likely keep growing as time goes on, and Prokhorov keeps spending.

The rest of the East will shape up, so keep an eye on New York, Philadelphia and Chicago.

The post Top 4 Teams in the East appeared first on The World Champion Crank Up The HEAT.

By: Steve Rawnsley

With the rosters mostly set, now is a good time to start evaluating where each team can finish. First we will look at the Western Conference. This conference is easily better all around than the East. The western conference will be very wild this year. It looks like it be jam packed where you could climb or drop a few spots in a day, similar to the 2007-08 season where the 2-6 seeds were separated by one game. However, here are the teams that I think will be looking at home court advantage out west.

Oklahoma City Thunder

“You have to lose, to learn how to win.” This is the motto of the Oklahoma City Thunder. You do not get to the mountaintop without going through the pain of the climb. It was amazing how many times the Heat referenced losing to the Mavericks in the finals as something that had to happen for them to win last season. The Thunder are now in a similar position to where the Heat were last season. For the most part, this team has stayed the same. The one big plus is getting backup point guard Eric Maynor back healthy. Even with Derek Fisher, the Thunder had a whole at PG after Westbrook.

The one drawback for them is the contract situations of Serge Ibaka and James Harden. However, if they can find a suitor for Kendrick Perkins, they should be able to keep both Harden and Ibaka, and stay under the luxury tax, but that is a whole different topic, for a different time. They will grow from last year’s experience, and be better.

San Antonio Spurs

Just like the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Spurs have remained in tact. Tim Duncan has taken a significant pay cut, to help the Spurs cap situation. The downside of this team is the aging of their big three. However, how many years have we been talking about their age? On the flip side, outside of their big three, they are a young team. The growth process of the rest of the team has helped negate the aging big three’s decline.

The Spurs finished the year in historical fashion that had many, including me wondering if they could be beat. They finished winning 21 of their last 22 games where they did not rest their big three, and went 38-7 after the rodeo trip. A lot of that has to do with depth. In the playoffs though, depth is not all that important. The question remains can they win when all of the eyes are on them, in the playoffs?

LA Lakers

In Hollywood fashion, the Lakers made maybe the biggest signing of the offseason. Steve Nash, is not the MVP of a few years ago, but he is probably still a top five point guard. We are focusing on the regular season here, and he will definitely help during the season, however, come playoff time, there comes problems.

Nash is bad defensively. He has never been known for his defense. Who are the Lakers biggest competitors in the west? Those teams are lead by quick speedy point guards, in Parker and Westbrook. (You can throw in Chris Paul as a third big threat.) Now, Kobe will probably be forced to guard them. For all of the energy Nash will save Kobe by being the primary ball handler, Kobe will use up that energy and more on defense. Can he guard the quick point guards at this stage of his career?

Back to the regular season though. This team has four hall of famers, if Bynum can keep his head on strait. Throw in the Antawn Jamison signing, and this team will be a very good team. The move to the Princeton offense, will definitely help Gasol out, as they will use his skills more like they did when they ran the triangle offense.

LA Clippers

Okay, this is where it really gets interesting. The last home court advantage spot, could go to a number of teams, but we will go with the Clippers. Lamar Odom is back in LA. He was one of the best 6th men, if not the best when he was with the Lakers. Hopefully, from the Clippers point of view they get that Odom, and not the Odom, that played in Dallas. Also, they might get back a healthy Billups. He has vowed he will come back, and he will be with the Clippers, however, how much can he recover from the torn ACL at his age?

The bench could be very very good. Already mentioned that Odom could be the leader of the bench unit. He will be followed by the improving Eric Bledsoe, and newly acquired pieces Jamal Crawford, and Grant Hill. Eric Bledsoe needs more playing time, and therefore losing Mo Wiliams is not a big loss. However, the biggest key will be health, with Blake Griffin’s knee injury in pre-Olympic training, and Billups recovery from his torn ACL. If they can stay healthy, this team will be very dangerous. That is a big if though.

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By: Matt Blue

The New York Knicks need Jeremy Lin more than Lin needs the New York Knicks.  I know this is the very last thing Knicks fans want to hear right now, but it’s the truth.  Everything that has happened in the last 24-48 hours has been terrific for Jeremy Lin. Not only will Lin be reaping the benefits financially by cashing in $25.1 million over three years, but he will also be reaping the benefits basketball wise.

Currently, Houston’s roster consists of All Star Kevin Martin and an incredible amount of rookies and young players. Therefore, Lin will have plenty of room to operate in Houston. In New York, he would have been forced to get a number of his teammates involved in the offense such as Carmelo Anthony and Ama’re Stoudemire. In Houston, he will be able to play with an immense amount of freedom without having to worry about hurting any enormous egos.

Remember, the climax of Linsanity occurred when the Knicks had a losing record and when their two stars were unavailable due to injuries. Lin basically had nothing to lose when he started seeing major minutes in New York. During the height of Linsanity, Lin averaged 20.9 points and shot 47 percent. The biggest reason as to why he was able to put up these kinds of numbers was because he didn’t have anyone trying to take the basketball out of his hands.

As far as marketing is concerned, many Knicks fans believe Linsanity won’t be able to survive in Houston. That couldn’t be further from the truth. Remember when Yao Ming was able to thrive as an international icon in Houston? Well, It is definitely safe to say that Lin will have a great opportunity to increase his brand and market himself effectively in Houston. Even though the Houston market isn’t as big as the New York market, he will still be followed just as closely in Houston. You can take that to the bank.

At the end of the day, Jeremy Lin is better off in Houston. He will be playing for a 40 year old franchise that has experienced the glory days before with the likes of Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler. The Houston Rockets can relive the glory days once again with Jeremy Lin leading the way.

Besides you know how the old saying goes “if you can make it in New York you can make it anywhere.” So if Lin can make it in New York, why can’t he make it in Houston?

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